. . "Proceedings from the BIS conference %22Monetary policy in a changing environment%22" . "Assessing future inflation in inflation targeting: forecasts or simulations?"@en . "Basilej" . "Inflation targeting is a regime based to a great extent on communication and, more specifically,on using and communicating assessments of future inflation. The central banking literature,however, devotes surprisingly little attention to some important issues connected with suchassessments. There are some non-trivial choices that need to be made regarding future inflationassessments on three distinct levels: construction, decision making and communication. One ofthe most important choices relates to the treatment of the central bank's behaviour within theassessment. We first differentiate between two basic ways of assessing future inflation: forecastand simulation. A forecast is the most likely picture of the future. In a forecast, all agents areassumedto behave in the most likely way. A simulation, on the other hand, is the most likelypicture of the future if the behaviour of one agent follows a predetermined path or is generatedusing a selected reaction function." . . . . . "Inflation targeting is a regime based to a great extent on communication and, more specifically,on using and communicating assessments of future inflation. The central banking literature,however, devotes surprisingly little attention to some important issues connected with suchassessments. There are some non-trivial choices that need to be made regarding future inflationassessments on three distinct levels: construction, decision making and communication. One ofthe most important choices relates to the treatment of the central bank's behaviour within theassessment. We first differentiate between two basic ways of assessing future inflation: forecastand simulation. A forecast is the most likely picture of the future. In a forecast, all agents areassumedto behave in the most likely way. A simulation, on the other hand, is the most likelypicture of the future if the behaviour of one agent follows a predetermined path or is generatedusing a selected reaction function."@en . "Sko\u0159epa, M." . "Z(MSM 275100015)" . . "15"^^ . "1"^^ . "599157" . "0"^^ . "0"^^ . "2"^^ . "Monetary policy, Inflation projection"@en . "147-157" . . "[D7154C33DFCF]" . "Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Basilej" . . . "RIV/61989100:27510/03:00007499!RIV/2004/MSM/275104/N" . . "Kotl\u00E1n, Viktor" . "Assessing future inflation in inflation targeting: forecasts or simulations?"@en . "2002-10-14+02:00"^^ . "RIV/61989100:27510/03:00007499" . . . "Assessing future inflation in inflation targeting: forecasts or simulations?" . "Basilej, \u0160v\u00FDcarsko" . "27510" . . "Assessing future inflation in inflation targeting: forecasts or simulations?" . .