"The comparison of methods of economic forecasting; application to the transformation process in the Czech Republic"@en . . . . . . . "http://www.isvav.cz/projectDetail.do?rowId=GA402/00/0461"^^ . . "In the economic practice the methods and techniques based on the time-series analysis and econometric models are used. In the conditions of the transition Czech economy there are numerous experiences showing different barriers of their using the main of them being the non-existence of a relevant economic theory. Further, it is a non-stability of econometric models and also a not sufficient length of time-series and their not convenient properties. The project proposed should bring a study and comparisonof selected methods of forecasting appropriate for the Czech economy characterized by any robustness towards permanent structural changes. A comparison should be made for different types of economic time-series using one-equation and also simultaneous econometric models. Besides, relevant simultaneous techniques and Monte Carlo experiments should be performed."@en . . "1"^^ . . "Vynikaj\u00EDc\u00ED v\u00FDsledky publikov\u00E1ny v presti\u017En\u00EDch \u010Dasopisech a konferenc\u00EDch."@cs . "GA402/00/0461" . . "Komparace metod ekonomick\u00E9ho progn\u00F3zov\u00E1n\u00ED: aplikace na transforma\u010Dn\u00ED proces v \u010CR" . . "0"^^ . . "Neuvedeno."@en . "0"^^ . . "V ekonomick\u00E9 praxi se b\u011B\u017En\u011B pou\u017E\u00EDv\u00E1 \u0159ada metod a technik zalo\u017Een\u00FDch na anal\u00FDze \u010Dasov\u00FDch \u0159ad i na ekonometrick\u00FDch modelech. Zku\u0161enosti v\u0161ak ukazuj\u00ED, \u017Ee v podm\u00EDnk\u00E1ch transformuj\u00EDc\u00ED se \u010Desk\u00E9 ekonomiky existuj\u00ED r\u016Fzn\u00E9 bari\u00E9ry pro jejich \u00FAsp\u011B\u0161nou aplikaci. Jdep\u0159edev\u0161\u00EDm o absenci adekv\u00E1tn\u00ED ekonomick\u00E9 teorie a stability model\u016F pro ekonometrick\u00E9 p\u0159edpov\u011Bdi, ale i o neposta\u010Duj\u00EDc\u00ED d\u00E9lku ekonomick\u00FDch \u010Dasov\u00FDch \u0159ad a jejich nevyhovuj\u00EDc\u00ED vlastnosti. C\u00EDlem v\u00FDzkumu je proto porovnat a testovat vybran\u00E9 metody ekonomick\u00E9hprogn\u00F3zov\u00E1n\u00ED a navrhnout postupy vhodn\u00E9 pro \u010Deskou ekonomiku, t.j. umo\u017E\u0148uj\u00EDc\u00ED z\u00EDskat p\u0159edpov\u011Bdi robustn\u00ED v\u016F\u010Di prob\u00EDhaj\u00EDc\u00EDm struktur\u00E1ln\u00EDm zm\u011Bn\u00E1m. Srovn\u00E1n\u00ED bude provedeno pro r\u016Fzn\u00E9 typy ekonomick\u00FDch \u010Dasov\u00FDch \u0159ad a s vyu\u017Eit\u00EDm jednorovnicov\u00FDch i simult\u00E1nn\u00EDchekonometrick\u00FDch model\u016F. K vyhodnocen\u00ED se vyu\u017Eij\u00ED i simula\u010Dn\u00ED techniky, v\u010Detn\u011B Monte Carlo experiment\u016F." . "15"^^ . "2008-05-19+02:00"^^ . . "15"^^ . . .