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Statements

Subject Item
n2:RIV%2F67179843%3A_____%2F12%3A00376218%21RIV13-AV0-67179843
rdf:type
n8:Vysledek skos:Concept
dcterms:description
The main goal of this paper is to estimate how the observed and predicted climate changes may affect the development rates and emergence of the codling moth in the southern part of the Wielkopolska region in Poland. In order to simulate the future climate conditions one of the most frequently used A1B SRES scenarios and two different IPCC climate models (HadCM3 and GISS modelE) are considered. A daily weather generator (WGENK) was used to generate temperature values for present and future climate conditions (time horizons 2020–2040 and 2040–2060). Based on the generated data set, the degree-days values were then calculated and the emergence dates of the codling moth at key stages were estimated basing on the defined thresholds. Our analyses showed that the average air surface temperature in the Wielkopolska region may increase from 2.8°C (according to GISS modelE) even up to 3.3°C (HadCM3) in the period of 2040–2060. With the warming climate conditions the cumulated degree-days values may increase at a rate of about 142 DD per decade when the low temperature threshold (T low ) of 0°C is considered and 91 DD per decade when T low  = 10°C. The key developmental stages of the codling moth may occur much earlier in the future climate conditions than currently, at a rate of about 3.8–6.8 days per decade, depending on the considered GCM model and the pest developmental stage. The fastest changes may be observed in the emergence dates of 95% of larvae of the second codling moth generation. This could increase the emergence probability of the pest third generation that has not currently occurred in Poland. The main goal of this paper is to estimate how the observed and predicted climate changes may affect the development rates and emergence of the codling moth in the southern part of the Wielkopolska region in Poland. In order to simulate the future climate conditions one of the most frequently used A1B SRES scenarios and two different IPCC climate models (HadCM3 and GISS modelE) are considered. A daily weather generator (WGENK) was used to generate temperature values for present and future climate conditions (time horizons 2020–2040 and 2040–2060). Based on the generated data set, the degree-days values were then calculated and the emergence dates of the codling moth at key stages were estimated basing on the defined thresholds. Our analyses showed that the average air surface temperature in the Wielkopolska region may increase from 2.8°C (according to GISS modelE) even up to 3.3°C (HadCM3) in the period of 2040–2060. With the warming climate conditions the cumulated degree-days values may increase at a rate of about 142 DD per decade when the low temperature threshold (T low ) of 0°C is considered and 91 DD per decade when T low  = 10°C. The key developmental stages of the codling moth may occur much earlier in the future climate conditions than currently, at a rate of about 3.8–6.8 days per decade, depending on the considered GCM model and the pest developmental stage. The fastest changes may be observed in the emergence dates of 95% of larvae of the second codling moth generation. This could increase the emergence probability of the pest third generation that has not currently occurred in Poland.
dcterms:title
Climate change impact on development rates of the codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.) in the Wielkopolska region, Poland Climate change impact on development rates of the codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.) in the Wielkopolska region, Poland
skos:prefLabel
Climate change impact on development rates of the codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.) in the Wielkopolska region, Poland Climate change impact on development rates of the codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.) in the Wielkopolska region, Poland
skos:notation
RIV/67179843:_____/12:00376218!RIV13-AV0-67179843
n8:predkladatel
n9:ico%3A67179843
n3:aktivita
n11:Z
n3:aktivity
Z(AV0Z60870520)
n3:cisloPeriodika
1
n3:dodaniDat
n12:2013
n3:domaciTvurceVysledku
Olejnik, Janusz
n3:druhVysledku
n16:J
n3:duvernostUdaju
n13:S
n3:entitaPredkladatele
n15:predkladatel
n3:idSjednocenehoVysledku
127416
n3:idVysledku
RIV/67179843:_____/12:00376218
n3:jazykVysledku
n6:eng
n3:klicovaSlova
climate change; degree days; codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.); weather generator; WGENK
n3:klicoveSlovo
n10:codling%20moth%20%28Cydia%20pomonella%20L.%29 n10:climate%20change n10:weather%20generator n10:WGENK n10:degree%20days
n3:kodStatuVydavatele
DE - Spolková republika Německo
n3:kontrolniKodProRIV
[B1E3E9E02B8D]
n3:nazevZdroje
International Journal of Biometeorology
n3:obor
n17:EH
n3:pocetDomacichTvurcuVysledku
1
n3:pocetTvurcuVysledku
4
n3:rokUplatneniVysledku
n12:2012
n3:svazekPeriodika
57
n3:tvurceVysledku
Leśny, J. Juszczak, R. Olejnik, Janusz Kuchar, L.
n3:wos
000312722200003
n3:zamer
n5:AV0Z60870520
s:issn
0020-7128
s:numberOfPages
14
n18:doi
10.1007/s00484-012-0531-0