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Statements

Subject Item
n2:RIV%2F00216275%3A25410%2F14%3A39898365%21RIV15-MSM-25410___
rdf:type
skos:Concept n19:Vysledek
dcterms:description
The ageing process is a great challenge for many European countries, not excluding the Czech Republic (CR) and it brings financial risk in areas such as social policy, pensions and health care. The motivation for this paper is to compare various mortality models. We have attempted to explain mortality improvements for males aged 62-90 in the CR using a several stochastic mortality models. We compare quantitatively number of stochastic models explaining improvements in mortality rates in the CR. It is clear that mortality improvements are driven by an underlying process that is stochastic. Numbers of stochastic models have been developed to analyse these mortality improvements. We will deal in models such as Lee-Carter model, Renshaw and Haberman model, Aged-Periodic-Cohort model (APC), Cairns-Blake-Dowd model (CBD) and their extensions. Each model is fitted to the male data between 1968 and 2011. Our analysis focuses on mortality at higher ages (62-90), given our interest in pensionrelated applications. By the Bayes Information Criterion (BIC) we find that an extension of the Cairns- Blake-Dowd (CBD) model fits the Czech Republic male's data best. The ageing process is a great challenge for many European countries, not excluding the Czech Republic (CR) and it brings financial risk in areas such as social policy, pensions and health care. The motivation for this paper is to compare various mortality models. We have attempted to explain mortality improvements for males aged 62-90 in the CR using a several stochastic mortality models. We compare quantitatively number of stochastic models explaining improvements in mortality rates in the CR. It is clear that mortality improvements are driven by an underlying process that is stochastic. Numbers of stochastic models have been developed to analyse these mortality improvements. We will deal in models such as Lee-Carter model, Renshaw and Haberman model, Aged-Periodic-Cohort model (APC), Cairns-Blake-Dowd model (CBD) and their extensions. Each model is fitted to the male data between 1968 and 2011. Our analysis focuses on mortality at higher ages (62-90), given our interest in pensionrelated applications. By the Bayes Information Criterion (BIC) we find that an extension of the Cairns- Blake-Dowd (CBD) model fits the Czech Republic male's data best.
dcterms:title
Stochastic Mortality Models. Application to CR mortality data Stochastic Mortality Models. Application to CR mortality data
skos:prefLabel
Stochastic Mortality Models. Application to CR mortality data Stochastic Mortality Models. Application to CR mortality data
skos:notation
RIV/00216275:25410/14:39898365!RIV15-MSM-25410___
n3:aktivita
n14:P
n3:aktivity
P(EE2.3.30.0058)
n3:dodaniDat
n13:2015
n3:domaciTvurceVysledku
n16:8342989
n3:druhVysledku
n17:D
n3:duvernostUdaju
n10:S
n3:entitaPredkladatele
n6:predkladatel
n3:idSjednocenehoVysledku
47555
n3:idVysledku
RIV/00216275:25410/14:39898365
n3:jazykVysledku
n21:eng
n3:klicovaSlova
mortality, constraints, Bayes Information Criterion, force of mortality,
n3:klicoveSlovo
n4:Bayes%20Information%20Criterion n4:constraints n4:mortality n4:force%20of%20mortality
n3:kontrolniKodProRIV
[120697A4FE88]
n3:mistoKonaniAkce
Salerno
n3:mistoVydani
Heidelberg
n3:nazevZdroje
Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance - MAF 2014
n3:obor
n7:BB
n3:pocetDomacichTvurcuVysledku
1
n3:pocetTvurcuVysledku
1
n3:projekt
n8:EE2.3.30.0058
n3:rokUplatneniVysledku
n13:2014
n3:tvurceVysledku
Gogola, Ján
n3:typAkce
n18:WRD
n3:zahajeniAkce
2014-04-22+02:00
s:numberOfPages
4
n22:doi
10.1007/978-3-319-05014-0_26
n15:hasPublisher
Springer-Verlag
n9:isbn
978-3-319-05013-3
n12:organizacniJednotka
25410