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Statements

Subject Item
n2:RIV%2F00216224%3A14560%2F11%3A00054466%21RIV12-MSM-14560___
rdf:type
n6:Vysledek skos:Concept
dcterms:description
This paper uses a simple New Keynesian DSGE model as a means to examine the sources of the Czech business cycle from 1996 to 2010, focusing on the output gap. We estimate the DSGE model in order to obtain trajectories of exogenous shocks. Based on the model, we decompose the deviation of Czech output from trend into contributions of these shocks. We show that since 2000, the foreign demand shock and exchange rate shock have been increasingly important for the domestic business cycle. Overall, domestic shocks account for more than a half of the variance in the domestic output gap. We contrast the recession of 1997-1998, caused primarily by domestic shocks, to the recession of 2009, which was caused by a drop in the foreign demand. We also find that the Czech economy is sensitive to the exchange rate movements, as documented by the year 2002. This paper uses a simple New Keynesian DSGE model as a means to examine the sources of the Czech business cycle from 1996 to 2010, focusing on the output gap. We estimate the DSGE model in order to obtain trajectories of exogenous shocks. Based on the model, we decompose the deviation of Czech output from trend into contributions of these shocks. We show that since 2000, the foreign demand shock and exchange rate shock have been increasingly important for the domestic business cycle. Overall, domestic shocks account for more than a half of the variance in the domestic output gap. We contrast the recession of 1997-1998, caused primarily by domestic shocks, to the recession of 2009, which was caused by a drop in the foreign demand. We also find that the Czech economy is sensitive to the exchange rate movements, as documented by the year 2002.
dcterms:title
A DSGE Model View of the Czech Business Cycle A DSGE Model View of the Czech Business Cycle
skos:prefLabel
A DSGE Model View of the Czech Business Cycle A DSGE Model View of the Czech Business Cycle
skos:notation
RIV/00216224:14560/11:00054466!RIV12-MSM-14560___
n6:predkladatel
n13:orjk%3A14560
n3:aktivita
n11:S n11:P
n3:aktivity
P(1M0524), S
n3:dodaniDat
n10:2012
n3:domaciTvurceVysledku
n7:1581678 n7:3602397
n3:druhVysledku
n15:O
n3:duvernostUdaju
n17:S
n3:entitaPredkladatele
n18:predkladatel
n3:idSjednocenehoVysledku
183772
n3:idVysledku
RIV/00216224:14560/11:00054466
n3:jazykVysledku
n16:eng
n3:klicovaSlova
DSGE models; business cycles; shocks decomposition
n3:klicoveSlovo
n4:business%20cycles n4:shocks%20decomposition n4:DSGE%20models
n3:kontrolniKodProRIV
[60F34F3C140F]
n3:obor
n5:AH
n3:pocetDomacichTvurcuVysledku
2
n3:pocetTvurcuVysledku
2
n3:projekt
n14:1M0524
n3:rokUplatneniVysledku
n10:2011
n3:tvurceVysledku
Motl, Tomáš Vašíček, Osvald
n8:organizacniJednotka
14560