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Statements

Subject Item
n2:RIV%2F00216208%3A11320%2F13%3A10174014%21RIV14-GA0-11320___
rdf:type
skos:Concept n18:Vysledek
rdfs:seeAlso
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1714-z
dcterms:description
The ability of a large ensemble of regional climate models to accurately simulate heat waves at the regional scale of Europe was evaluated. Within the EURO-CORDEX project, several state-of-the art models were run for a time period of 20 years over Europe. Eight models were run in high resolution of 12 km, and thirteen models were run at a classical resolution of 50 km. All models were driven by the ERA-Interim re-analysis. Results, which are compared with daily temperature and precipitation observations (ECA&D and E-OBS data sets), show that the ensemble exhibits a large spread. A preliminary analysis of the sources of spread shows that the simulation of hot temperature is primarily sensitive to the convection and the microphysics schemes. Most models exhibit overestimation of summer temperature extremes in Mediterranean regions and an underestimation over Scandinavia. The simulated heat wave events were found to be too persistent, but a higher resolution reduced this deficiency. The amplitude of events as well as the variability beyond the 90th percentile threshold were found to be too strong in almost all simulations and increasing resolution did not generally improve this deficiency. Resolution increase was also shown to induce large-scale 90th percentile warming or cooling for some models, with beneficial or detrimental effects on the overall biases. The drivers of such regional differences were shown to be linked to changes in precipitation due to resolution changes, affecting the energy partitioning. Finally, the inter-annual sequence of hot summers over central/southern Europe was found to be fairly well simulated in most experiments despite an overestimation of the number of hot days and of the variability. Despite some improvements, especially along coastlines, the analyses conducted here did not allow us to generally conclude that a higher resolution is clearly beneficial for a correct representation of heat waves by regional climate models. The ability of a large ensemble of regional climate models to accurately simulate heat waves at the regional scale of Europe was evaluated. Within the EURO-CORDEX project, several state-of-the art models were run for a time period of 20 years over Europe. Eight models were run in high resolution of 12 km, and thirteen models were run at a classical resolution of 50 km. All models were driven by the ERA-Interim re-analysis. Results, which are compared with daily temperature and precipitation observations (ECA&D and E-OBS data sets), show that the ensemble exhibits a large spread. A preliminary analysis of the sources of spread shows that the simulation of hot temperature is primarily sensitive to the convection and the microphysics schemes. Most models exhibit overestimation of summer temperature extremes in Mediterranean regions and an underestimation over Scandinavia. The simulated heat wave events were found to be too persistent, but a higher resolution reduced this deficiency. The amplitude of events as well as the variability beyond the 90th percentile threshold were found to be too strong in almost all simulations and increasing resolution did not generally improve this deficiency. Resolution increase was also shown to induce large-scale 90th percentile warming or cooling for some models, with beneficial or detrimental effects on the overall biases. The drivers of such regional differences were shown to be linked to changes in precipitation due to resolution changes, affecting the energy partitioning. Finally, the inter-annual sequence of hot summers over central/southern Europe was found to be fairly well simulated in most experiments despite an overestimation of the number of hot days and of the variability. Despite some improvements, especially along coastlines, the analyses conducted here did not allow us to generally conclude that a higher resolution is clearly beneficial for a correct representation of heat waves by regional climate models.
dcterms:title
The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project
skos:prefLabel
The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project
skos:notation
RIV/00216208:11320/13:10174014!RIV14-GA0-11320___
n18:predkladatel
n19:orjk%3A11320
n3:aktivita
n6:P n6:Z
n3:aktivity
P(GAP209/11/2405), Z(MSM0021620860)
n3:cisloPeriodika
9-10
n3:dodaniDat
n20:2014
n3:domaciTvurceVysledku
n7:1688782 n7:7718500
n3:druhVysledku
n10:J
n3:duvernostUdaju
n21:S
n3:entitaPredkladatele
n5:predkladatel
n3:idSjednocenehoVysledku
105236
n3:idVysledku
RIV/00216208:11320/13:10174014
n3:jazykVysledku
n16:eng
n3:klicovaSlova
EURO-CORDEX; Climate projection; Model evaluation; Heat waves; Regional climate modeling
n3:klicoveSlovo
n4:EURO-CORDEX n4:Climate%20projection n4:Heat%20waves n4:Model%20evaluation n4:Regional%20climate%20modeling
n3:kodStatuVydavatele
US - Spojené státy americké
n3:kontrolniKodProRIV
[217F1C3C9550]
n3:nazevZdroje
Climate Dynamics
n3:obor
n13:DG
n3:pocetDomacichTvurcuVysledku
2
n3:pocetTvurcuVysledku
26
n3:projekt
n12:GAP209%2F11%2F2405
n3:rokUplatneniVysledku
n20:2013
n3:svazekPeriodika
41
n3:tvurceVysledku
Scinocca, John Nikulin, Grigory Karacostas, Theodore van Meijgaard, Erik Deque, Michel Suklitsch, Martin Garcia-Diez, Markel Wulfmeyer, Volker Sobolowski, Stefan Mayer, Stephanie Gobiet, Andreas Yiou, Pascal Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten Katragkou, Eleni Halenka, Tomáš Vautard, Robert Kotlarski, Sven Jacob, Daniela Teichmann, Claas Goergen, Klaus Fernandez, Jesus Colette, Augustin Patarcic, Mirta Keuler, Klaus Guettler, Ivan Belda, Michal
n3:wos
000326244700019
n3:zamer
n22:MSM0021620860
s:issn
0930-7575
s:numberOfPages
21
n14:doi
10.1007/s00382-013-1714-z
n9:organizacniJednotka
11320