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Statements

Subject Item
n2:RIV%2F00216208%3A11320%2F12%3A10127406%21RIV13-AV0-11320___
rdf:type
skos:Concept n9:Vysledek
rdfs:seeAlso
http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr01072
dcterms:description
This paper presents regional scale simulations aiming to assess the sensitivity of future air quality under anticipated climate change, with a focus on near-surface ozone (O-3) and particulate matter with a diameter <10 mu m (PM10). Constant anthropogenic emissions and biogenic emissions varying with climate were used. The modelling was carried out with regional climate models coupled to Chemical Transport Models for 3 decadal time slices, under the IPCC A1B scenario, in both coarse (50 km) and high (10 km) resolution for Europe and for targeted domains of Central-Eastern Europe (CEE), respectively. Two modelling systems were applied: the RegCM/CAMx and ALADIN-Climate/CMAQ driven by ECHAM5 and ARPEGE global climate models, respectively. A comprehensive 'operational' evaluation of the performance of modelling systems driven by re-analysis of ECMWF ERA-40 fields was carried out for one full year. Our modelling systems fulfilled the fractional bias (FB) and fractional error (FE) skill criteria and the benchmark of index of agreement (IA) for maximum daily running 8 h mean O-3, with FBs ranging from +4 to -11%, FEs of 14 to 31% and IAs of 0.63 to 0.87. The models' performance for annual, winter and daily mean PM10 was weaker, with FBs of -3 to -49% and FEs of 38 to 66%, but skill criteria for PM were met. Those results justified the use of proposed modelling systems for future time projections. The simulated changes in climate has rather weak impacts on the air quality of the mid-century (2041-2050). For the end-century (2091-2100), our study shows an increase in summer mean O-3 and a decrease in annual mean PM10 in CEE. The main climate factors responsible for projected changes were an increase in summer temperature and a decrease in summer precipitation for O-3, and an increase in winter precipitation for PM10. This paper presents regional scale simulations aiming to assess the sensitivity of future air quality under anticipated climate change, with a focus on near-surface ozone (O-3) and particulate matter with a diameter <10 mu m (PM10). Constant anthropogenic emissions and biogenic emissions varying with climate were used. The modelling was carried out with regional climate models coupled to Chemical Transport Models for 3 decadal time slices, under the IPCC A1B scenario, in both coarse (50 km) and high (10 km) resolution for Europe and for targeted domains of Central-Eastern Europe (CEE), respectively. Two modelling systems were applied: the RegCM/CAMx and ALADIN-Climate/CMAQ driven by ECHAM5 and ARPEGE global climate models, respectively. A comprehensive 'operational' evaluation of the performance of modelling systems driven by re-analysis of ECMWF ERA-40 fields was carried out for one full year. Our modelling systems fulfilled the fractional bias (FB) and fractional error (FE) skill criteria and the benchmark of index of agreement (IA) for maximum daily running 8 h mean O-3, with FBs ranging from +4 to -11%, FEs of 14 to 31% and IAs of 0.63 to 0.87. The models' performance for annual, winter and daily mean PM10 was weaker, with FBs of -3 to -49% and FEs of 38 to 66%, but skill criteria for PM were met. Those results justified the use of proposed modelling systems for future time projections. The simulated changes in climate has rather weak impacts on the air quality of the mid-century (2041-2050). For the end-century (2091-2100), our study shows an increase in summer mean O-3 and a decrease in annual mean PM10 in CEE. The main climate factors responsible for projected changes were an increase in summer temperature and a decrease in summer precipitation for O-3, and an increase in winter precipitation for PM10.
dcterms:title
Modelling the effects of climate change on air quality over Central and Eastern Europe: concept, evaluation and projections Modelling the effects of climate change on air quality over Central and Eastern Europe: concept, evaluation and projections
skos:prefLabel
Modelling the effects of climate change on air quality over Central and Eastern Europe: concept, evaluation and projections Modelling the effects of climate change on air quality over Central and Eastern Europe: concept, evaluation and projections
skos:notation
RIV/00216208:11320/12:10127406!RIV13-AV0-11320___
n9:predkladatel
n10:orjk%3A11320
n3:aktivita
n4:Z n4:P
n3:aktivity
P(1ET400300414), Z(MSM0021620860)
n3:cisloPeriodika
3
n3:dodaniDat
n6:2013
n3:domaciTvurceVysledku
n14:8002002 n14:7718500
n3:druhVysledku
n20:J
n3:duvernostUdaju
n11:S
n3:entitaPredkladatele
n17:predkladatel
n3:idSjednocenehoVysledku
151154
n3:idVysledku
RIV/00216208:11320/12:10127406
n3:jazykVysledku
n16:eng
n3:klicovaSlova
Particulate matter; Ozone; Future projection; Model evaluation; Regional modelling; Central-Eastern Europe; Air quality; Climate change
n3:klicoveSlovo
n13:Particulate%20matter n13:Central-Eastern%20Europe n13:Regional%20modelling n13:Future%20projection n13:Climate%20change n13:Model%20evaluation n13:Ozone n13:Air%20quality
n3:kodStatuVydavatele
DE - Spolková republika Německo
n3:kontrolniKodProRIV
[2B4DF1CAE739]
n3:nazevZdroje
Climate Research
n3:obor
n15:DG
n3:pocetDomacichTvurcuVysledku
2
n3:pocetTvurcuVysledku
12
n3:projekt
n5:1ET400300414
n3:rokUplatneniVysledku
n6:2012
n3:svazekPeriodika
53
n3:tvurceVysledku
Huszár, Peter Syrakov, Dimiter Krueger, Bernd C. Katragkou, Eleni Zanis, Prodromos Trapp, Wojciech Melas, Dimitris Juda-Rezler, Katarzyna Reizer, Magdalena Halenka, Tomáš Chervenkov, Hristo Tegoulias, Ioannis
n3:wos
000306567600002
n3:zamer
n22:MSM0021620860
s:issn
0936-577X
s:numberOfPages
25
n7:doi
10.3354/cr01072
n19:organizacniJednotka
11320