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  • The aim of the paper is to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on bilateral trade flows between Poland and its major trading partners. It is expected that increased exchange rate volatility increases the risk of exporters and reduces foreign trade. For this purpose we employ extended trade gravity model approach. In the basic form of the gravity equation, trade volume between a pair of countries is modeled as an increasing function of their sizes (GDP) and decreasing function of the distance between the two countries. Additional factors included in extended model are population, dummies for common border, membership in EU and EMU and proxy for exchange rate volatility. The measure of exchange rate volatility is estimated by standard deviation. This paper explores relatioship between trade and exchange rate uncertainty using quarterly data over the period 1997:1 - 2012:2. In order to obtain objective results, we use panel data regression with 19 trading partners. Based on gravity model that controls for other factors likely to determine bilateral trade, the results suggest that nominal exchange rate volatility of Polish zloty has a significant negative effect on bilateral trade over the sample period.
  • The aim of the paper is to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on bilateral trade flows between Poland and its major trading partners. It is expected that increased exchange rate volatility increases the risk of exporters and reduces foreign trade. For this purpose we employ extended trade gravity model approach. In the basic form of the gravity equation, trade volume between a pair of countries is modeled as an increasing function of their sizes (GDP) and decreasing function of the distance between the two countries. Additional factors included in extended model are population, dummies for common border, membership in EU and EMU and proxy for exchange rate volatility. The measure of exchange rate volatility is estimated by standard deviation. This paper explores relatioship between trade and exchange rate uncertainty using quarterly data over the period 1997:1 - 2012:2. In order to obtain objective results, we use panel data regression with 19 trading partners. Based on gravity model that controls for other factors likely to determine bilateral trade, the results suggest that nominal exchange rate volatility of Polish zloty has a significant negative effect on bilateral trade over the sample period. (en)
Title
  • Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Poland´s Trade Flows
  • Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Poland´s Trade Flows (en)
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  • Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Poland´s Trade Flows
  • Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Poland´s Trade Flows (en)
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  • RIV/47813059:19520/13:#0002255!RIV14-MSM-19520___
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  • S
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  • 71936
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  • RIV/47813059:19520/13:#0002255
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  • bilateral trade; exchange rate; gravity model; panel data; volatility (en)
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  • [A07E0D565A3F]
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  • Jihlava
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  • Jihlava
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  • Proceedings of the 31st International Conference Mathematical Methods in Economics 2013
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  • ŠIMÁKOVÁ, Jana
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number of pages
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  • College of Polytechnics Jihlava
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  • 978-80-87035-76-4
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  • 19520
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