About: Revisions to Czech National Accounts: Properties and Predictability

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rdf:type	skos:Concept http://linked.opendata.cz/ontology/domain/vavai/Vysledek
rdfs:seeAlso	http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1275_244-61---rusnak.pdf
Description	Frequent revisions to GDP and its components cause policymakers to face considerable uncertainty about the current state of the economy. In this paper, we provide stylized facts about the magnitude of revisions to the Czech national accounts. Using data over the 2003-2012 period, we find that the revisions are rather large. Revisions to real GDP growth are on average 1.4 for the annualized quarterly growth rate and 0.7 percentage points for the annual growth rate. Revisions to other variables are even larger: the average size of the revisions ranges from 1 to 12 percentage points for annualized quarterly growth rates and from 0.5 to 4 percentage points for annual growth rates. We investigate whether the revisions could have been predicted using the information available at the time of announcement. We find evidence for in-sample predictability for most of the variables, suggesting that the first releases of these variables are not efficient predictors of the actual values. In a real-time out-of-sample exercise, however, we find that the revisions to real GDP, gross fixed capital formation, and government consumption are not predictable. Only revisions to the GDP deflator can be predicted with substantial gains relative to zero-revisions forecasts. Frequent revisions to GDP and its components cause policymakers to face considerable uncertainty about the current state of the economy. In this paper, we provide stylized facts about the magnitude of revisions to the Czech national accounts. Using data over the 2003-2012 period, we find that the revisions are rather large. Revisions to real GDP growth are on average 1.4 for the annualized quarterly growth rate and 0.7 percentage points for the annual growth rate. Revisions to other variables are even larger: the average size of the revisions ranges from 1 to 12 percentage points for annualized quarterly growth rates and from 0.5 to 4 percentage points for annual growth rates. We investigate whether the revisions could have been predicted using the information available at the time of announcement. We find evidence for in-sample predictability for most of the variables, suggesting that the first releases of these variables are not efficient predictors of the actual values. In a real-time out-of-sample exercise, however, we find that the revisions to real GDP, gross fixed capital formation, and government consumption are not predictable. Only revisions to the GDP deflator can be predicted with substantial gains relative to zero-revisions forecasts. (en)
Title	Revisions to Czech National Accounts: Properties and Predictability Revisions to Czech National Accounts: Properties and Predictability (en)
skos:prefLabel	Revisions to Czech National Accounts: Properties and Predictability Revisions to Czech National Accounts: Properties and Predictability (en)
skos:notation	RIV/00216208:11230/13:10156075!RIV14-GA0-11230___
http://linked.open...avai/predkladatel	Fakulta sociálních věd
http://linked.open...avai/riv/aktivita	P S
http://linked.open...avai/riv/aktivity	P(GAP402/12/1993), S
http://linked.open...iv/cisloPeriodika	3
http://linked.open...vai/riv/dodaniDat	2014
http://linked.open...aciTvurceVysledku	Rusnák, Marek
http://linked.open.../riv/druhVysledku	J - Článek v odborném periodiku
http://linked.open...iv/duvernostUdaju	S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje nepodléhající ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
http://linked.open...titaPredkladatele	Univerzita Karlova v Praze / Fakulta sociálních věd
http://linked.open...dnocenehoVysledku	102823
http://linked.open...ai/riv/idVysledku	RIV/00216208:11230/13:10156075
http://linked.open...riv/jazykVysledku	eng - angličtina
http://linked.open.../riv/klicovaSlova	vintage data; revisions; national accounts (en)
http://linked.open.../riv/klicoveSlovo	national accounts revisions vintage data
http://linked.open...odStatuVydavatele	CZ - Česká republika
http://linked.open...ontrolniKodProRIV	[B7EF0BDC5815]
http://linked.open...i/riv/nazevZdroje	Finance a úvěr
http://linked.open...in/vavai/riv/obor	AH
http://linked.open...ichTvurcuVysledku	1 (xsd:int)
http://linked.open...cetTvurcuVysledku	1 (xsd:int)
http://linked.open...vavai/riv/projekt	Quantitative Modelling of Monetary and Fiscal Policies after the Crisis
http://linked.open...UplatneniVysledku	2013
http://linked.open...v/svazekPeriodika	63
http://linked.open...iv/tvurceVysledku	Rusnák, Marek
http://linked.open...ain/vavai/riv/wos	000321815500002
issn	0015-1920
number of pages	18 (xsd:int)
http://localhost/t...ganizacniJednotka	11230

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