About: Comparison of precipitation nowcasting by extrapolation and statistical-advection methods

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rdf:type	skos:Concept http://linked.opendata.cz/ontology/domain/vavai/Vysledek
Description	Two models for nowcasting of 1-h, 2-h and 3-h precipitation in the warm part of the year were evaluated. The first model was based on the extrapolation of observed radar reflectivity (COTREC-IPA) and the second one combined the extrapolation with the application of a statistical model (SAMR). The accuracy of the model forecasts was evaluated on independent data using the standard measures of root-mean-squared-error, absolute error, bias and correlation coefficient as well as by spatial verification methods Fractions Skill Score and SAL technique. The results show that SAMR yields slightly better forecasts during the afternoon period. On the other hand very small or no improvement is realized at night and in the very early morning. COTREC-IPA and SAMR forecast a very similar horizontal structure of precipitation patterns but the model forecasts differ in values. SAMR, similarly as COTREC-IPA, is not able to develop new storms or significantly intensify already existing storms. This is caused by a large uncertainty regarding future development. On the other hand, the SAMR model can reliably predict decreases in precipitation intensity. Two models for nowcasting of 1-h, 2-h and 3-h precipitation in the warm part of the year were evaluated. The first model was based on the extrapolation of observed radar reflectivity (COTREC-IPA) and the second one combined the extrapolation with the application of a statistical model (SAMR). The accuracy of the model forecasts was evaluated on independent data using the standard measures of root-mean-squared-error, absolute error, bias and correlation coefficient as well as by spatial verification methods Fractions Skill Score and SAL technique. The results show that SAMR yields slightly better forecasts during the afternoon period. On the other hand very small or no improvement is realized at night and in the very early morning. COTREC-IPA and SAMR forecast a very similar horizontal structure of precipitation patterns but the model forecasts differ in values. SAMR, similarly as COTREC-IPA, is not able to develop new storms or significantly intensify already existing storms. This is caused by a large uncertainty regarding future development. On the other hand, the SAMR model can reliably predict decreases in precipitation intensity. (en)
Title	Comparison of precipitation nowcasting by extrapolation and statistical-advection methods Comparison of precipitation nowcasting by extrapolation and statistical-advection methods (en)
skos:prefLabel	Comparison of precipitation nowcasting by extrapolation and statistical-advection methods Comparison of precipitation nowcasting by extrapolation and statistical-advection methods (en)
skos:notation	RIV/68378289:_____/13:00390563!RIV13-AV0-68378289
http://linked.open...avai/riv/aktivita	I P
http://linked.open...avai/riv/aktivity	I, P(ME09033)
http://linked.open...iv/cisloPeriodika	1 April
http://linked.open...vai/riv/dodaniDat	2013
http://linked.open...aciTvurceVysledku	Sokol, Zbyněk Pešice, Petr Mejsnar, Jan
http://linked.open.../riv/druhVysledku	J - Článek v odborném periodiku
http://linked.open...iv/duvernostUdaju	S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje nepodléhající ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
http://linked.open...titaPredkladatele	Ústav fyziky atmosféry AV ČR, v. v. i.
http://linked.open...dnocenehoVysledku	66281
http://linked.open...ai/riv/idVysledku	RIV/68378289:_____/13:00390563
http://linked.open...riv/jazykVysledku	eng - angličtina
http://linked.open.../riv/klicovaSlova	Precipitation forecast; Statistical models; Regression; Quantitative precipitation forecast; Extrapolation forecast (en)
http://linked.open.../riv/klicoveSlovo	Precipitation forecast Regression Extrapolation forecast Quantitative precipitation forecast Statistical models
http://linked.open...odStatuVydavatele	NL - Nizozemsko
http://linked.open...ontrolniKodProRIV	[BB5DF769E38C]
http://linked.open...i/riv/nazevZdroje	Atmospheric Research
http://linked.open...in/vavai/riv/obor	DG
http://linked.open...ichTvurcuVysledku	3 (xsd:int)
http://linked.open...cetTvurcuVysledku	4 (xsd:int)
http://linked.open...vavai/riv/projekt	Very short range precipitation and hydrological forecast focused on flash flood prediction
http://linked.open...UplatneniVysledku	2013
http://linked.open...v/svazekPeriodika	123
http://linked.open...iv/tvurceVysledku	Pešice, Petr Sokol, Zbyněk Mejsnar, Jan Kitzmiller, D.
http://linked.open...ain/vavai/riv/wos	000316580600003
issn	0169-8095
number of pages	14 (xsd:int)
http://bibframe.org/vocab/doi	10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.10.013

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