About: Generalized Additive Models for Nowcasting Cloud Shading

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An Entity of Type : http://linked.opendata.cz/ontology/domain/vavai/Vysledek, within Data Space : linked.opendata.cz associated with source document(s)

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rdf:type	skos:Concept http://linked.opendata.cz/ontology/domain/vavai/Vysledek
Description	The response time of a photovoltaic plant is very short and its output power follows the abrupt change in solar irradiance level due to alternate shadow by clouds. Presence of shading may be quantified by a binary variable: sunshine number (SSN). Various logistic Markovian models of SSN dynamics are introduced and discussed in this paper, going from simple to more complicated model structures. Radiometric data measured at 15 s lag during 2010 in Timisoara (Romania) are used to illustrate their real-world performance. The models are useful for short term forecasting related e.g. to photovoltaic conversion control, including more complicated events like ramp-like switches between overcast and clear regimes. Importantly, presented models are not black-box forecasting tools. They contain physically interpretable structure which is advantageous both in developing, checking and improvement of the model itself, but also as a tool for characterizing various systematic properties of cloud shading. The response time of a photovoltaic plant is very short and its output power follows the abrupt change in solar irradiance level due to alternate shadow by clouds. Presence of shading may be quantified by a binary variable: sunshine number (SSN). Various logistic Markovian models of SSN dynamics are introduced and discussed in this paper, going from simple to more complicated model structures. Radiometric data measured at 15 s lag during 2010 in Timisoara (Romania) are used to illustrate their real-world performance. The models are useful for short term forecasting related e.g. to photovoltaic conversion control, including more complicated events like ramp-like switches between overcast and clear regimes. Importantly, presented models are not black-box forecasting tools. They contain physically interpretable structure which is advantageous both in developing, checking and improvement of the model itself, but also as a tool for characterizing various systematic properties of cloud shading. (en)
Title	Generalized Additive Models for Nowcasting Cloud Shading Generalized Additive Models for Nowcasting Cloud Shading (en)
skos:prefLabel	Generalized Additive Models for Nowcasting Cloud Shading Generalized Additive Models for Nowcasting Cloud Shading (en)
skos:notation	RIV/67985807:_____/14:00424720!RIV15-AV0-67985807
http://linked.open...avai/riv/aktivita	I P
http://linked.open...avai/riv/aktivity	I, P(LD12009)
http://linked.open...iv/cisloPeriodika	March
http://linked.open...vai/riv/dodaniDat	2015
http://linked.open...aciTvurceVysledku	Brabec, Marek
http://linked.open.../riv/druhVysledku	J - Článek v odborném periodiku
http://linked.open...iv/duvernostUdaju	S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje nepodléhající ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
http://linked.open...titaPredkladatele	Ústav informatiky AV ČR, v. v. i.
http://linked.open...dnocenehoVysledku	18033
http://linked.open...ai/riv/idVysledku	RIV/67985807:_____/14:00424720
http://linked.open...riv/jazykVysledku	eng - angličtina
http://linked.open.../riv/klicovaSlova	sunshine number; nowcasting; generalized additive model; Markov chain (en)
http://linked.open.../riv/klicoveSlovo	nowcasting generalized additive model sunshine number Markov chain
http://linked.open...odStatuVydavatele	US - Spojené státy americké
http://linked.open...ontrolniKodProRIV	[2A0A59790AC3]
http://linked.open...i/riv/nazevZdroje	Solar Energy
http://linked.open...in/vavai/riv/obor	BB
http://linked.open...ichTvurcuVysledku	1 (xsd:int)
http://linked.open...cetTvurcuVysledku	3 (xsd:int)
http://linked.open...vavai/riv/projekt	Advanced methods for energy production forecasting by photovoltaic systems using high resolution NWP models
http://linked.open...UplatneniVysledku	2014
http://linked.open...v/svazekPeriodika	101
http://linked.open...iv/tvurceVysledku	Brabec, Marek Badescu, V. Paulescu, M.
http://linked.open...ain/vavai/riv/wos	000331921800028
issn	0038-092X
number of pages	11 (xsd:int)
http://bibframe.org/vocab/doi	10.1016/j.solener.2014.01.005

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