About: Strong geomagnetic activity forecast by neural networks under dominant southern orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field

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About: Strong geomagnetic activity forecast by neural networks under dominant southern orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

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rdf:type	skos:Concept http://linked.opendata.cz/ontology/domain/vavai/Vysledek
Description	The paper deals with the relation of the southern orientation of the north–south component Bz of the interplanetary magnetic field to geomagnetic activity (GA) and subsequently a method is suggested of using the found facts to forecast potentially dangerous high GA. We have found that on a day with very high GA hourly averages of Bz with a negative sign occur at least 16 times in typical cases. Since it is very difficult to estimate the orientation of Bz in the immediate vicinity of the Earth one day or even a few days in advance, we have suggested using a neural-network model, which assumes the worse of the possibilities to forecast the danger of high GA – the dominant southern orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field. The input quantities of the proposed model were information about X-ray flares, type II and IV radio bursts as well as information about coronal mass ejections (CME). In comparing the GA forecasts with observations, we obtain values of the Hanssen–Kuiper skill score ranging from 0.463 to 0.727, which are usual values for similar forecasts of space weather. The paper deals with the relation of the southern orientation of the north–south component Bz of the interplanetary magnetic field to geomagnetic activity (GA) and subsequently a method is suggested of using the found facts to forecast potentially dangerous high GA. We have found that on a day with very high GA hourly averages of Bz with a negative sign occur at least 16 times in typical cases. Since it is very difficult to estimate the orientation of Bz in the immediate vicinity of the Earth one day or even a few days in advance, we have suggested using a neural-network model, which assumes the worse of the possibilities to forecast the danger of high GA – the dominant southern orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field. The input quantities of the proposed model were information about X-ray flares, type II and IV radio bursts as well as information about coronal mass ejections (CME). In comparing the GA forecasts with observations, we obtain values of the Hanssen–Kuiper skill score ranging from 0.463 to 0.727, which are usual values for similar forecasts of space weather. (en)
Title	Strong geomagnetic activity forecast by neural networks under dominant southern orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field Strong geomagnetic activity forecast by neural networks under dominant southern orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field (en)
skos:prefLabel	Strong geomagnetic activity forecast by neural networks under dominant southern orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field Strong geomagnetic activity forecast by neural networks under dominant southern orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field (en)
skos:notation	RIV/67985530:_____/14:00430279!RIV15-AV0-67985530
http://linked.open...avai/riv/aktivita	I P
http://linked.open...avai/riv/aktivity	I, P(IAA300120608), P(OC09070)
http://linked.open...iv/cisloPeriodika	4
http://linked.open...vai/riv/dodaniDat	2015
http://linked.open...aciTvurceVysledku	Hejda, Pavel Bochníček, Josef
http://linked.open.../riv/druhVysledku	J - Článek v odborném periodiku
http://linked.open...iv/duvernostUdaju	S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje nepodléhající ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
http://linked.open...titaPredkladatele	Geofyzikální ústav AV ČR, v. v. i.
http://linked.open...dnocenehoVysledku	47787
http://linked.open...ai/riv/idVysledku	RIV/67985530:_____/14:00430279
http://linked.open...riv/jazykVysledku	eng - angličtina
http://linked.open.../riv/klicovaSlova	geomagnetic activity; interplanetary magnetic field; artificial neural network; ejection of coronal mass; X-ray flares (en)
http://linked.open.../riv/klicoveSlovo	artificial neural network geomagnetic activity X-ray flares ejection of coronal mass interplanetary magnetic field
http://linked.open...odStatuVydavatele	GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska
http://linked.open...ontrolniKodProRIV	[0B7C3827A765]
http://linked.open...i/riv/nazevZdroje	Advances in Space Research
http://linked.open...in/vavai/riv/obor	DE
http://linked.open...ichTvurcuVysledku	2 (xsd:int)
http://linked.open...cetTvurcuVysledku	4 (xsd:int)
http://linked.open...vavai/riv/projekt	Long-term and short-term variations of the geomagnetic field: data acquisition, analyses and forecasts Space weather variability and short-term forecasts of geomagnetic activity
http://linked.open...UplatneniVysledku	2014
http://linked.open...v/svazekPeriodika	53
http://linked.open...iv/tvurceVysledku	Hejda, Pavel Bochníček, Josef Revallo, M. Valach, F.
http://linked.open...ain/vavai/riv/wos	000332445300001
issn	0273-1177
number of pages	10 (xsd:int)
http://bibframe.org/vocab/doi	10.1016/j.asr.2013.12.005

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