About: Prediction vs. reality: Can a PVA model predict population persistence 13 years later?

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rdf:type	skos:Concept http://linked.opendata.cz/ontology/domain/vavai/Vysledek
Description	The challenge of conservation biology is to make models that predict population dynamics and have a high probability of accurately tracking population. Here we tested whether the transition model is accurate enough to predict population persistence and size 13 years down and whether after 13 years populations had achieved a stable stage distribution. We modeled 6 small populations of an epiphytic orchid. We re-censused the populations 13 years after the first study and compared the structure of the populations to predictions based on the earlier census data. Effective population growth rates were similar to those expected except for one where the population went extinct. The prediction slightly overestimated the actual population growth rates of some populations. Elasticity analysis revealed that the adult stage is critical in the life cycle. The observed stage distributions of the populations were not stable at the beginning of the survey and neither were they after 13 years. The challenge of conservation biology is to make models that predict population dynamics and have a high probability of accurately tracking population. Here we tested whether the transition model is accurate enough to predict population persistence and size 13 years down and whether after 13 years populations had achieved a stable stage distribution. We modeled 6 small populations of an epiphytic orchid. We re-censused the populations 13 years after the first study and compared the structure of the populations to predictions based on the earlier census data. Effective population growth rates were similar to those expected except for one where the population went extinct. The prediction slightly overestimated the actual population growth rates of some populations. Elasticity analysis revealed that the adult stage is critical in the life cycle. The observed stage distributions of the populations were not stable at the beginning of the survey and neither were they after 13 years. (en)
Title	Prediction vs. reality: Can a PVA model predict population persistence 13 years later? Prediction vs. reality: Can a PVA model predict population persistence 13 years later? (en)
skos:prefLabel	Prediction vs. reality: Can a PVA model predict population persistence 13 years later? Prediction vs. reality: Can a PVA model predict population persistence 13 years later? (en)
skos:notation	RIV/67179843:_____/10:00356797!RIV11-MSM-67179843
http://linked.open...avai/riv/aktivita	P Z
http://linked.open...avai/riv/aktivity	P(LC06073), Z(AV0Z60870520)
http://linked.open...iv/cisloPeriodika	3
http://linked.open...vai/riv/dodaniDat	2011
http://linked.open...aciTvurceVysledku	Kindlmann, Pavel Traxmandlová, Iva
http://linked.open.../riv/druhVysledku	J - Článek v odborném periodiku
http://linked.open...iv/duvernostUdaju	S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje nepodléhající ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
http://linked.open...titaPredkladatele	Centrum výzkumu globální změny AV ČR, v. v. i.
http://linked.open...dnocenehoVysledku	281081
http://linked.open...ai/riv/idVysledku	RIV/67179843:_____/10:00356797
http://linked.open...riv/jazykVysledku	eng - angličtina
http://linked.open.../riv/klicovaSlova	Lepanthes rubripetala; Matrix models; Orchids; Transition matrix (en)
http://linked.open.../riv/klicoveSlovo	Transition matrix Lepanthes rubripetala Matrix models Orchids
http://linked.open...odStatuVydavatele	NL - Nizozemsko
http://linked.open...ontrolniKodProRIV	[020DF073E9D7]
http://linked.open...i/riv/nazevZdroje	Biodiversity and Conservation
http://linked.open...in/vavai/riv/obor	EH
http://linked.open...ichTvurcuVysledku	2 (xsd:int)
http://linked.open...cetTvurcuVysledku	3 (xsd:int)
http://linked.open...vavai/riv/projekt	Biodiversity Research Center
http://linked.open...UplatneniVysledku	2010
http://linked.open...v/svazekPeriodika	19
http://linked.open...iv/tvurceVysledku	Kindlmann, Pavel Schödelbauerová, Iva Tremblay, R. L.
http://linked.open...ain/vavai/riv/wos	000274330800003
http://linked.open...n/vavai/riv/zamer	Spatial and functional dynamics of biological, ecological and socio-economic systems interacting with global climatic change
issn	0960-3115
number of pages	14 (xsd:int)

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