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  • Risk to safety of personnel in process industries is normally modelled in the application of Event Trees, where the risk is defined as a product of event frequency and its consequences. This method is steady state whilst the actual event is time dependent, comprising, for a gas release, as for example, the size of gas cloud being released, probabilities of ignition, fire or explosion, fatality, escalation to new releases and fire and/or explosion, and the probability of fatality, all varying with time. This paper presents a method whereby the time-dependent events and the time-dependent probability of fatality are modelled by means of the two methods: direct Monte Carlo simulation method on one hand and analytical computation method based on modeling of scenarios by the use of directed acyclic graph (DAG) on the other hand. Using these methods the modeled scenarios change with relevant probabilities at defined times to configurations with appropriate probabilities of fatalities. The paper uses a realistic example from the offshore industry and compares results of the simulation method with results based on traditional analytical approach on given assumptions.
  • Risk to safety of personnel in process industries is normally modelled in the application of Event Trees, where the risk is defined as a product of event frequency and its consequences. This method is steady state whilst the actual event is time dependent, comprising, for a gas release, as for example, the size of gas cloud being released, probabilities of ignition, fire or explosion, fatality, escalation to new releases and fire and/or explosion, and the probability of fatality, all varying with time. This paper presents a method whereby the time-dependent events and the time-dependent probability of fatality are modelled by means of the two methods: direct Monte Carlo simulation method on one hand and analytical computation method based on modeling of scenarios by the use of directed acyclic graph (DAG) on the other hand. Using these methods the modeled scenarios change with relevant probabilities at defined times to configurations with appropriate probabilities of fatalities. The paper uses a realistic example from the offshore industry and compares results of the simulation method with results based on traditional analytical approach on given assumptions. (en)
Title
  • Time-dependent risk modelling of accidental events and responses in process industries
  • Time-dependent risk modelling of accidental events and responses in process industries (en)
skos:prefLabel
  • Time-dependent risk modelling of accidental events and responses in process industries
  • Time-dependent risk modelling of accidental events and responses in process industries (en)
skos:notation
  • RIV/61989100:27740/13:86083773!RIV14-MSM-27740___
http://linked.open...avai/riv/aktivita
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  • P(ED1.1.00/02.0070)
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  • 111111
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  • RIV/61989100:27740/13:86083773
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  • Time-dependent risk modeling; Offshore industry; Hydrocarbon-related fire risk (en)
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  • [809D7B46E772]
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  • Helsinky
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  • 11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference and the Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference 2012, PSAM11 ESREL 2012
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  • Briš, Radim
  • Medonos, Sava
  • Wilkins, Chris
  • Zdráhala, Adam
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http://linked.open.../riv/zahajeniAkce
number of pages
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  • Curran Associates
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  • 978-1-62276-436-5
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  • 27740
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