About: Time-dependent risk modeling of accidental events and responses in process industries     Goto   Sponge   NotDistinct   Permalink

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Description
  • Risk to safety of personnel in process industries is normally modeled in the application of Event Trees, where the risk is defined as a product of event frequency and its consequences. This method is steady state whilst the actual event is time dependent, comprising, for a gas release, as for example, the size of gas cloud being released, probabilities of ignition, fire or explosion, fatality, escalation to new releases and fire and/or explosion, and the probability of fatality, all varying with time. This Paper presents a method whereby the time-dependent events and the time-dependent probability of fatality are modeled by means of the direct Monte Carlo simulation method. Different accident scenarios are modeled and discussed resulting from Event Trees analysis. Using the simulation method the modeled scenarios change with relevant probabilities at defined times to configurations with appropriate probabilities of fatalities. Simple sensitivity analysis in dependency on most relevant events is also performed. The Paper uses a realistic example from the offshore industry for which the probability of fatality is quantified by the use of simulation method.
  • Risk to safety of personnel in process industries is normally modeled in the application of Event Trees, where the risk is defined as a product of event frequency and its consequences. This method is steady state whilst the actual event is time dependent, comprising, for a gas release, as for example, the size of gas cloud being released, probabilities of ignition, fire or explosion, fatality, escalation to new releases and fire and/or explosion, and the probability of fatality, all varying with time. This Paper presents a method whereby the time-dependent events and the time-dependent probability of fatality are modeled by means of the direct Monte Carlo simulation method. Different accident scenarios are modeled and discussed resulting from Event Trees analysis. Using the simulation method the modeled scenarios change with relevant probabilities at defined times to configurations with appropriate probabilities of fatalities. Simple sensitivity analysis in dependency on most relevant events is also performed. The Paper uses a realistic example from the offshore industry for which the probability of fatality is quantified by the use of simulation method. (en)
Title
  • Time-dependent risk modeling of accidental events and responses in process industries
  • Time-dependent risk modeling of accidental events and responses in process industries (en)
skos:prefLabel
  • Time-dependent risk modeling of accidental events and responses in process industries
  • Time-dependent risk modeling of accidental events and responses in process industries (en)
skos:notation
  • RIV/61989100:27740/14:86089063!RIV15-MSM-27740___
http://linked.open...avai/riv/aktivita
http://linked.open...avai/riv/aktivity
  • P(ED1.1.00/02.0070)
http://linked.open...iv/cisloPeriodika
  • 2014
http://linked.open...vai/riv/dodaniDat
http://linked.open...aciTvurceVysledku
http://linked.open.../riv/druhVysledku
http://linked.open...iv/duvernostUdaju
http://linked.open...titaPredkladatele
http://linked.open...dnocenehoVysledku
  • 50577
http://linked.open...ai/riv/idVysledku
  • RIV/61989100:27740/14:86089063
http://linked.open...riv/jazykVysledku
http://linked.open.../riv/klicovaSlova
  • Offshore Industry, Time-Dependent Risk Modeling, Hydrocarbon-Related Fire Risk, Monte Carlo Method (en)
http://linked.open.../riv/klicoveSlovo
http://linked.open...odStatuVydavatele
  • GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska
http://linked.open...ontrolniKodProRIV
  • [7054E7007953]
http://linked.open...i/riv/nazevZdroje
  • Reliability engineering and system safety
http://linked.open...in/vavai/riv/obor
http://linked.open...ichTvurcuVysledku
http://linked.open...cetTvurcuVysledku
http://linked.open...vavai/riv/projekt
http://linked.open...UplatneniVysledku
http://linked.open...v/svazekPeriodika
  • 125
http://linked.open...iv/tvurceVysledku
  • Briš, Radim
  • Medonos, Sava
  • Wilkins, Chris
  • Zdráhala, Adam
http://linked.open...ain/vavai/riv/wos
  • 000333790600007
issn
  • 0951-8320
number of pages
http://bibframe.org/vocab/doi
  • 10.1016/j.ress.2013.05.010
http://localhost/t...ganizacniJednotka
  • 27740
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