The subject matter of the proposed project consists of econometric analysis and scenario simulation of the expected impacts generated by the Czech EU and EMU memberships. The analysis shall provide qualified and quantified results to support foreign trade policy decision making towards the EU (and EMU) countries, both at the microeconomic and macroeconomic level. The main target of this research resides in contributing to the refinement of economic forecasts and in the improvement of economic policy measures applied upon such forecasts. Our econometric analysis covers primarily the following topics and issues:How the Czech foreign trade with the EU and its individual countries shall evolve considering the gradual fulfillment of Maastricht criteria and continuing euro accession adjustments - as based on the Rose effect.What changes may be expected in the volume, commodity and geographical structure of the Czech export and import - through the use of gravitation model.What role may trend and volatility of the CZK/EUR exchange rate have on CR's foreign economic relations, such as on inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI). What effect is going to have the anticipated euro accession of the CR on the volume and structure of Czech foreign trade. (en)
Cílem projektu je ekonometrická analýza a scénářová simulace očekávaných dopadů členství ČR v EU či v EMU, která poskytne kvantifikované závěry pro rozhodování na makro- i mikroúrovni o zahraniční obchodní politice ČR ve vztahu k zemím EU, resp. EMU.