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  • Leading indicators are potential carriers of signals of future changes in aggregate economic activity. They are mostly composed by means of empirical evidence found in development of aggregate time series. There is also a possibility to find their theoretical foundations by examining decisions of a representative firm in short run. The firm aims to minimize the producing costs for a given demand. The decisions involve change of employment, hours worked and stock of inventories according to the firm's expectations. The short run equilibrium is found by means of inter-temporal optimization. The evidence of lead is found by means of shock analysis. The reduced form equations are utilized for empirical tests using available macroeconomic time series for EU-27 countries. The results show mixed evidence. While for almost every country there is one leading indicator found, the indicators proved the lead in average less than in half cases. The conclusions imply the theory contains evidence of leading indicators, which can be found also in real aggregate macroeconomic time series.
  • Leading indicators are potential carriers of signals of future changes in aggregate economic activity. They are mostly composed by means of empirical evidence found in development of aggregate time series. There is also a possibility to find their theoretical foundations by examining decisions of a representative firm in short run. The firm aims to minimize the producing costs for a given demand. The decisions involve change of employment, hours worked and stock of inventories according to the firm's expectations. The short run equilibrium is found by means of inter-temporal optimization. The evidence of lead is found by means of shock analysis. The reduced form equations are utilized for empirical tests using available macroeconomic time series for EU-27 countries. The results show mixed evidence. While for almost every country there is one leading indicator found, the indicators proved the lead in average less than in half cases. The conclusions imply the theory contains evidence of leading indicators, which can be found also in real aggregate macroeconomic time series. (en)
Title
  • Rerepsentative firm’s decisions and leading indicators
  • Rerepsentative firm’s decisions and leading indicators (en)
skos:prefLabel
  • Rerepsentative firm’s decisions and leading indicators
  • Rerepsentative firm’s decisions and leading indicators (en)
skos:notation
  • RIV/61989100:27510/13:86086961!RIV14-MSM-27510___
http://linked.open...avai/riv/aktivita
http://linked.open...avai/riv/aktivity
  • S
http://linked.open...vai/riv/dodaniDat
http://linked.open...aciTvurceVysledku
  • Kľúčik, Miroslav
http://linked.open.../riv/druhVysledku
http://linked.open...iv/duvernostUdaju
http://linked.open...titaPredkladatele
http://linked.open...dnocenehoVysledku
  • 102486
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  • RIV/61989100:27510/13:86086961
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  • leading indicators, economic theory, inter-temporal optimization (en)
http://linked.open.../riv/klicoveSlovo
http://linked.open...ontrolniKodProRIV
  • [7EE1C981EEC4]
http://linked.open...v/mistoKonaniAkce
  • Jihlava
http://linked.open...i/riv/mistoVydani
  • Jihlava
http://linked.open...i/riv/nazevZdroje
  • Mathematical Methods in Economics 2013 : 31st international conference : 11-13 September 2013, Jihlava, Czech Republic
http://linked.open...in/vavai/riv/obor
http://linked.open...ichTvurcuVysledku
http://linked.open...cetTvurcuVysledku
http://linked.open...UplatneniVysledku
http://linked.open...iv/tvurceVysledku
  • Kľúčik, Miroslav
http://linked.open...vavai/riv/typAkce
http://linked.open.../riv/zahajeniAkce
number of pages
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  • College of Polytechnics Jihlava
https://schema.org/isbn
  • 978-80-87035-76-4
http://localhost/t...ganizacniJednotka
  • 27510
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